Gaethje faces ‘huge challenge’ against inevitable Topuria at UFC Freedom 250

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Earlier this week, at a hotel not far from the outdoor octagon on the White House’s south lawn where he’ll defend his UFC lightweight title against Justin Gaethje Sunday night, Ilia Topuria was asked if there’s any aspect of his opponent’s game he feels is superior to his own.

Wearing a black-on-black jacket and shirt unbuttoned deep enough to reveal the capital “T” cresting the intricate tattoo collage covering his chest, Topuria gazed out before him in consideration, slightly shaking his head as a bemused grin spread across his face — an answer in and of itself.

“I don’t know, the truth is I haven’t thought about that,” Topuria said, still grinning. “I think he takes better naps than I do in front of the audience, that’s for sure.”

Yeah, Topuria’s a cold dude. Fights cold; speaks cold; sparks dudes cold. His aesthetic is that of unshakable composure amidst the fight game’s constant chaos — both inside the octagon and out. His calm, simmering intensity is enough to convince most he’s as inevitable as he says he is. And for any outstanding doubters, there’s the action that follows as he continues to punch ticket after ticket.

“People still confuse my confidence with arrogance,” Topuria said. “They don’t understand that everything has come from hard work, discipline, and sacrifice. Everything I talk about is based in facts. Many say that I talk a lot. But, at the end of the day, I also show it.”

Recency bias is a powerful force in the MMA world, but even following a year’s absence from competition while tending to a very tumultuous and public divorce, no one should need a reminder of how exceptional Topuria can be. His mantle holds a who’s who of this generation’s stars. Alexander Volkanovski by right hook. Max Holloway with a left. Charles Oliveira with the right, then the left.

All three knockouts came within a 16-month span and have only improved with age, as Volkanovski went on to reclaim his featherweight title, Oliveira is undefeated in two fights since, and Holloway looked vintage returning to win a five-round war with Dustin Poirier. None of the three were past it when Topuria flat-lined them. He was just that good.

Along the way, Topuria became one of only 11 UFC fighters to win titles in multiple weight classes and, with a win over Gaethje on Sunday, could join that group’s inner circle of four to defend multiple titles. And if he does that, he’d be the only one to do so with an undefeated record, carving out a status level of his own that it’s hard to fathom any other fighter reaching in the foreseeable future.

Now, from an international perspective, Topuria’s status was long ago cemented. Not yet 30, he’s been splashed across the front pages of Spanish dailies and honoured by Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. He holds brand ambassador deals with some of the biggest corporations in his native Georgia. The designer clothes, flashy jewellery, and sports cars weren’t gifted.

“It’s just proof through example that it doesn’t matter where you come from,” Topuria said. “If you know where you’re going, everything is possible in this life.” 

It’s no accident that the UFC chose Topuria to headline Sunday’s UFC Freedom 250 card — one of the most monumental its put on in years, which will reach a vast audience worldwide. It would be hard for him to become any more popular in Europe when he’s already rubbing shoulders with football and motorsport royalty. But the elevated stage of walking out for a main event from the literal White House could help get Topuria further over with a North American fanbase that’s been slower to catch on. He just has to hold up his end.

And, if you’re so obliged, you can MMA math your way to Gaethje looking like Topuria’s least challenging opponent in some time and a perfect stylistic matchup to deploy his accurate, heavy-handed striking game against. 

Gaethje’s last two losses were to Holloway in 2024 and Oliveira in 2022. Two of his last four wins came against Rafael Fiziev, who’s lost four of his last five. His interim lightweight title win over Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324 in January was impressively violent, but no one would call it a technical masterclass. And Pimblett quantitatively out-struck him over five rounds.

It’s that propensity to get hit — plus the precision and force with which Topuria does the hitting — that has Gaethje entering Sunday as such a dramatic underdog with odds of +400 or higher, depending where you look. He’s absorbed a staggering 7.05 strikes per minute over his UFC career, which is higher than the 6.48 strikes per minute he’s landed. 

Meanwhile, Topuria’s bombed on opponents with far better defence. And he’s stood opposite fighters with just as much heart and resolve. Even Gaethje himself admits the realities of his situation.

“I mean, he’s beat two people that knocked me out,” Gaethje said. “He’s a huge challenge for me, huge challenge”

It takes some contorting to find Gaethje’s path to victory, but it’s there if you squint. In his last two championship fights — putting the ceremonial “BMF” belt aside — Gaethje came up against accomplished grapplers in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, who both submitted him. This time around, he’s facing a striker who’s going to try to starch him on the feet.

It’s a similar test to the one he faced when winning his interim belt in a good old-fashioned brawl with a remarkably durable Pimblett. Gaethje headhunted his way to a majority decision victory that night after five exhausting, blood-and-guts rounds. It was a Gaethje fight if there ever was one. And to win on Sunday, he’ll likely need to force a Gaethje fight again, dragging Topruia into an ugly, gritty trench battle rather than a technical one waged at distance.

“I think the way that he’s talked about me and the way he’s diminished my abilities really puts him into a corner where he has to have a spectacular performance,” Gaethje said of Topuria. “When we go to the second round, how is he going to justify that to himself? When we go to the third round and he’s bleeding, how is he going to justify that when it should have been over already in his mind? I do not go in there with those expectations. I expect a 25-minute war.”

Of course, that’s what Gaethje got with Max Holloway at UFC 300 when he was knocked out in the literal final second before losing on the scorecards. And it took a throwback performance against Pimblett just for Gaethje to extend his storied career and postpone the retirement he teased in the event of a loss

One presumes those personal stakes will remain unchanged this weekend, as the 37-year-old seeks to win undisputed divisional gold for the first time. If he comes up short, what’s left for him to do? Unless it’s a controversial finish, he won’t be getting another title shot any time soon. And no one wants to see a fighter who’s taken as much punishment as Gaethje hang around into his late-30s accepting more.

That gives him literally everything to fight for, which is another narrative one can construct to argue his path to victory. Say this for Gaethje — he’s never given anything less than his all. 

But Topuria hasn’t shown the same resolve because he keeps steamrolling dudes within three rounds. And the last time he went to the scorecards, one of the judges awarded him both a 10-8 and a 10-7. Maybe Topuria’s capable of doggedly digging just as deep as we’ve seen Gaethje time and again. He just hasn’t needed to demonstrate it.

“I mean, his last three fights have been spectacular. He’s one of the best in the world,” Gaethje said. “He’s number two on the pound-for-pound list. This is a huge task for me, a huge challenge. I’m a huge underdog. But I love the challenge.”

Waiting ever so patiently for the next challenge is Arman Tsarukyan, who’s deserved a title shot for over two years now. He’s in Washington keeping himself within cutting distance of 155 pounds as the backup fighter for Sunday’s main event. And presuming both fighters make it to the White House, he ought to be next for whoever leaves it with the belt.

Which brings us to another question Topuria — head tilted down, peering forward from beneath thick black eyebrows — answered in typically cold, menacing fashion at that hotel this week. If you’re so certain a win on Sunday is inevitable, what’s next?

“Honestly, I don’t think about it,” Topuria said. “Before, I was a contender — I had to knock on people’s doors and challenge them to get my opportunity. Now, I think I’ve earned my place as being someone that has what people want. So, whoever wants a piece, go ahead and knock on the door. Maybe we’ll open it.”