As the NHL calendar pushes us closer to the annual draft, the sentiment around who the Toronto Maple Leafs should take No. 1 overall has settled on one guy: Gavin McKenna.
Even with that, if you’re evaluating the performance of the Maple Leafs front office, the No. 1 thing you want to know about what’s going on right now is that they’re considering everything. That means Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid, Caleb Malhotra, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels — heck, trading the pick — and on and on.
I’ve tried to do the same, keeping an open mind to the idea of drafting Stenberg, in large part because of the respect I have for our own Jason Bukala, the scouting director who helped assemble those great Florida Panthers teams. And yes, I’ve given some thought to the idea of just drafting one of these great D-men too, but scoring still remains the hardest thing to do in hockey, and passing on one of the top two forward options just doesn’t feel worth the “high floor guarantee” upside that would come with picking a defenceman. It doesn’t look like Matthew Schaefer 2.0 is in this draft class.
While I’m not a scout, I’ve watched a few games of each kid and listened, read and talked to everyone I can, and so with that, I want to focus on why McKenna is the right pick for the Leafs.
Don’t get me wrong with the below: He’s not the perfect player. He’s not physical, and if the game doesn’t come his way, sometimes he can go quietly through the game without impact. But the standard he should be held to isn’t perfection, it’s “Is he the best in the draft?” and “How can he help the Leafs?”
Scoring remains the hardest thing to do in hockey, and McKenna is better than any available player in the draft at creating offence. That’s almost enough of a reason to take him without any other words. You can’t win if you can’t create, and picking him ensures you’ve got a creator.
I also love the path he took from a development perspective. He tore up the WHL to a disgusting degree (129 points in 56 games), then went to Penn State at a time when college hockey is just getting better and better and tested himself in a different environment. After a hot sec to figure out the pace and to start to see the lanes there, he put up points at a crazy pace there, too (51 points in 35 games, second by points-per-game in the country).
I’ve been bothered by the suggestion that going to college “hurt his draft stock,” and that tearing the WHL up again would’ve been somehow better. Isn’t the point to improve, not just to impress people?
Yes, teams can win with depth and physical play, a la Florida and Vegas. That’s been held up as an example of how you play in the playoffs. But Nikita Kucherov has 177 points in playoffs (159 games) and two Stanley Cups, too. There’s not a player you can draft that wins you a Cup alone, but there are plenty who can be a part of it, and an elite producer like McKenna is no different.
The Leafs power play has gone in the wrong direction, from first in 2021-22, to second, to seventh, to ninth, and then finally to 15th without Mitch Marner last season. And even with Marner, the power play struggled in the post-season, where it could’ve been the thing to push them through in these close series.
McKenna can control a power play from the flank with his elite vision and passing, all but guaranteeing that over the next handful of years, the Leafs don’t get on the wrong side of “league average” with the man advantage.
You could make the case that Vegas has three of the league’s highest “hockey IQ” forwards in Marner, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone. These guys see it, don’t make glaring “whoopsie” plays very often, and know when it’s time to retreat, know when it’s time to go. Funny how that turns into wins.
Gavin McKenna’s number one positive attribute is his hockey IQ – he’s the smartest hockey player in the draft. He controls the pace of play, sees all 10 skaters on the ice, and finds seams to create chances for his teammates.
Built for the Toronto market
At the NHL Draft Combine, Sportsnet interviewed McKenna, and our group hit him with some of the usual stuff down the middle, but threw in the odd fastball and changeup too. Jason Bukala was particularly great, fairly explaining why he currently has Stenberg No. 1, and allowing McKenna the chance to make the case for himself. It was fun, and McKenna was engaged the whole way through.
The kid also didn’t waver. He said all the right things about competing and developing a B-game on his off nights, he was courteous and respectful and unfazed. You can say that stuff doesn’t matter, but it does in a large market. He’ll be in front of cameras constantly, he’ll be challenged, he’ll be asked to explain himself, and he can.
He’s been an elite talent from a young age, he’s used to the attention and the spotlight and North American coverage in general. It may make him grumpy at times, as it would anyone, but it will not overwhelm him.
Some of the criticism about McKenna is based on the non-offensive side of things, but I’ll make this case for him: he’s smart and knows where to be positionally. He reloads for his D well when they pinch, can be relied upon as F3 and can work in a system. Again, he’s not physical; he is not a battler like other players – that’s a clear shortcoming. But he’s not flying the zone irresponsibly (from what I saw anyway), and he’s at least aware of where to be on the ice.
The best-case scenario for him defensively is that he’s so situationally aware that he’s someone you put on the ice up a goal in the dying minute because he reads the play so well. If he never gets there, I still don’t think he’s a complete flake defensively. That can improve with maturity, too.
Being from Whitehorse is a great thing
McKenna has talked about his happy place being his family cabin, which is four hours north of Whitehorse. Go ahead and plot that out on a map in your head – that’s about as remote a spot as we have left on earth.
To inhabit those places, you need resilience, you need to be able to put in work and to work with your hands. He loves that place and his family. All those traits are positive when trying to play professional hockey. Farm boys were a market efficiency back when the Islanders were drafting as many as they could in their Cup years, as they knew they’d be getting strong, competent men. I’d argue McKenna’s background implies you’re getting the same with him.
Not much of a “potential bust” floor
The top nine or so projected picks in the first round all seem like players with nice upside, but also carry the chance that they fall short of expectations. That’s true of any draft. But in saying that, and acknowledging I don’t exactly know what McKenna’s “floor” outcome is, I find it hard to believe it’s very low. I’ve seen this kid make some plays to where I just can’t see him being anything less than an 80-point guy in his prime (again, floor), and the ceiling is way high.
The points may not be there right away, but this guy sees it in a way that few in the league can. Once his feet and strength catch up to the rest of the league, I don’t see any way he doesn’t put up numbers.
And so, with all that in mind, yes, there are reasons the Maple Leafs may not pick him. They want a D-man, they want to make a trade or their scouts love Stenberg. But at the end of the day, you’re picking a lottery ticket, and McKenna seems to me to be far and away the best odds of hitting a jackpot.