Tatsuro Taira, Joshua Van meet in Gen Z clash at UFC 328

You have to be lucky to be good, yet good to be lucky, which is an MMA axiom Joshua Van ought to understand better than most.

Who could deny his 2025? Van blitzed through a relentless schedule, decisioning Rei Tsuruya and Bruno Silva, then emerging from a fight-of the-year frontrunner with Brandon Royval, before the calendar even flipped to July. Combine it with his late 2024 victory over Cody Durden, and Van had four wins in the span of six-and-a-half months, showcasing a multifaceted game, tactical proficiency, and sheer will.

Yet his next fight, an unexpected title shot against flyweight titan Alexandre Pantoja, ended just as quickly as it began when the champion went for a head kick fewer than 30 seconds into the bout that the challenger caught and used to force him to the mat. 

As Pantoja reached his left hand out to break the fall, his elbow bore the brunt of his body weight and immediately dislocated — a freak injury that produced Pantoja’s first loss in a half-decade and UFC’s first titleholder born in the 2000s.

It was Van’s undeniable ability that positioned him to benefit from Pantoja’s cruel twist of fate and reach the pinnacle of his division. But it was unquestionably fortunate to seize a belt from a long-time champion attempting a fifth consecutive defence with such little resistance. 

And as Pantoja continues to rehab his arm and rebuild conditioning in the fight’s wake, we’re left with the questions about Van that swirled both entering and exiting that night. But we will at least get a related answer on Saturday, when the 24-year-old makes the walk at UFC 328 for his first defence against fellow Gen-Zer Tatsuro Taira. 

Taira is no Pantoja, clearly. Only 26, he’s never been in a fight this big. And while he’s demonstrated tenacious offensive grappling throughout his nine-fight UFC career, he’s yet to be as thoroughly tested on the feet in the fashion Van is capable of. 

Remember, Taira’s lone setback came in a thrilling, five-round fight of the night against Royval, in which he dropped in a razor-thin split decision — 48-47, 48-47, 47-48 — for his first career loss. 

Van, meanwhile, absorbed everything Royval had and then some — stepping in on two week’s notice, no less — before scoring a decisive knockdown late in the fight to put an exclamation point on his unanimous decision victory.

The fights aren’t directly comparable, considering Taira landed six takedowns and spent half of his bout with Royval in positional control. But common opponents are always instructive. And it says something that Royval landed 124 significant strikes to Taira’s 42 over five rounds, while Van quadrupled that output in keeping pace — Royval earned a slight significant strikes edge, 215-204 — over three.

Ultimately, Taira will need to overcome Van’s sound defensive grappling — the champion enters with 81 per cent takedown defence for his career — to get the fight into his world. And with a suite of smooth transitions and lightning-quick back takes, Taira possesses the ability to build quickly to a finish any time he gets his opponent down. He’s won UFC fights via armbar, triangle, and face crank, not yet needing to reach into the deep bag of chokes he possesses among his submission arsenal.

But every round starts on the feet, and as long as the fight stays there, Van has the advantage. He’s landed 8.84 strikes per minute over his career — Taira’s 2.94 pales in comparison — with 56 per cent accuracy. The only active flyweight anywhere close to Van’s output is Royval, who has landed 5.54 times per minute.

Van’s volume is extremely uncommon, even within the sport’s fastest-paced division. He debuted two-and-a-half years ago and his total strikes landed already rank fourth in flyweight history. Tim Elliott, Demetrious Johnson, and Brandon Moreno sit ahead of him. But those three all have 15+ UFC fights. Van has 10.

Of course, even that limited experience speaks to what a prolific, blistering rise Van has had. In 2010, he was a 9-year-old living with his parents and four siblings in Myanmar. He didn’t set foot in the United States until 2013. The first time he entered an MMA gym was 2019. And he made his professional debut in late 2021.

Now he’s a UFC champion — the second youngest in promotional history. For as much as we’ve learned about Van in such a short amount of time, there’s still plenty unknown. 

And yet you could say the same about Taira. After he began fighting in 2016, Taira ripped through nine amateur fights in less than a year — undefeated, of course — before turning professional at 18 and running his record to 10-0 over the next four years in Japan’s Shooto organization. 

That’s when the UFC came calling and Taira immediately announced his presence with dominant victories in his first five contests. That earned him his first big opportunity against one-time flyweight title challenger Alex Perez, whose knee buckled under Taira’s weight in a takedown, resulting in a second-round TKO.

Taira’s lone setback to Royval came next. But he’s since bounced back with two straight TKOs, spoiling Hyun Sung Park’s undefeated record before dominating the one-time flyweight champion Moreno at UFC 323.

In some ways, Taira’s resume is more impressive than Van’s. Three of his last four opponents have either fought for the flyweight title or held it. And his lone loss in that run was extremely competitive. His talent and 18-1 record are undeniable and he’s still years away from what ought to be his competitive prime.

But he’ll still be the older fighter Saturday night. Even in a young man’s division, these two are extremely raw. You don’t get too many title bouts like this between a pair of guys with UFC win totals in the single digits.

On the opposite end of that spectrum is the thoroughly battle-tested Pantoja, who unquestionably deserves to fight the winner considering his track record and the freak nature of his loss to Van in December.

The shame of that incident for fans is the fireworks show it pre-empted. Pantoja and Van were throwing down throughout that half-minute, firing and landing with heavy shots in both directions. Van was demonstrating the speed, durability, and skill that elevated him into that moment. And Pantoja was composed as ever in the chaos, prepared to drag his young challenger into deep waters and test his mettle in championship rounds.

The 35-year-old ought to still get his opportunity to do that. But first, Van will seek to assert he’s more good than lucky, while Taira tries to prove the opposite.