TORONTO — It’s a blanket statement and obviously it doesn’t cover everyone, but at this point, it feels like Canadians have slowly gotten on board with the idea that if their favourite team can’t win, they’d sure like to see Connor McDavid get his.
The Oilers were a 1B choice for many. With Sidney Crosby getting deeper into the back nine of his career, most want to see the next Captain Canada get it across the line, and so the Oilers’ latest disappointment seems like it’s hit hard for more than just the fans in Edmonton.
In the end, it wasn’t all that close for a team that we long justified as “OK” because “they’re the Oilers,” and they just seemed to always find a way.
So, how did we get here, and where do things stand? I’ve got five main thoughts on the state of the Oilers after their disappointing 4-2 series loss to the Anaheim Ducks.
Joel Quenneville vs. Kris Knoblauch
It’s starting to look like Coach Q has found himself behind another franchise at the start of a promising upswing (like the Blackhawks of yore), and he’s exactly the guy to know how to manage the unique on-ice challenges that come with that. One of my first thoughts when this was all said and done was, “If these two teams switched coaches, I bet things unfold differently.”
That’s not exactly a knock on Kris Knoblauch, who I have a lot of trouble assessing. The Oilers won a pile of games, big ones too, with him behind the bench. But it’s tough to say he did anything brilliant beyond what any other coach could do, given the weaponry he’s been handed.
One of my core hockey beliefs is that a good coach takes his roster and leans into the strengths in hopes of mitigating the weaknesses. Quenneville nailed that. The Ducks’ young stars can fly (fitting), they’ve got talent for days, and so rather than hammering them with a mallet until they played defensive hockey, he allowed them to go, go, go. That’s not to say he doesn’t try to get them to defend, but they were never going to be able to sit back in a shell and contain the Oilers, so that’s not a game plan they bothered trying.
Ducks offence got better all year long, and is officially elite
The Ducks killed the Oilers off the rush in Game 6, with an odd-man rush count of 10-4, racking up 18 scoring chances off turnovers to the Oilers’ 10. Every time it felt like the Oilers might gain momentum, the Ducks were dashing back the other way on a rush.
Anaheim doesn’t defend great, but when you score 4-5 goals a game, you don’t have to. Expected goals for the Ducks was dangerous all year, and in the playoffs, they only trail the few elite teams.
Leo Carlsson is a star in the NHL. Cutter Gauther is a star. Beckett Sennecke should get there too. The Oilers attempted to add defensive help at the deadline but it didn’t help them against a team that just looked bigger and faster up front.
Oilers goaltending situation calls Stan Bowman’s job into question
Connor Ingram ended up with a bottom-four “goals-saved above expected” (per 60) among the 21 goalies who’ve played in a playoff game (as per MoneyPuck). Tristan Jarry was “better,” at 16th out of 21. Considering what everyone had identified as a major Oilers problem — that Stuart Skinner had been one of the worst playoff goalies over the past few years — it could not look worse that the solution they traded for (Jarry) wasn’t even useable in five of the six playoff games, and makes $5.375 million for two more seasons. Combine that with Jack Campbell’s buyout, and the Oilers are in for almost $8 million next year for guys they think they can’t use. Like, Ingram was fine enough as essentially found money, but they were desperate. If you’re Connor McDavid and you left several million per season on the table to be surrounded with help, you can’t love how they’re using that money.
I don’t know how much CEO of hockey operations Jeff Jackson has had a hand in some of this, but looking at Bowman, it’s tough not to look at the Trent Frederic deal and wince. The Jake Walman deal doesn’t feel great. Not keeping Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway isn’t looking good, and you could go on picking apart the Oilers moves.
But, in the end, the Oilers goaltending situation should be enough to have people questioning Bowman. They were in a hole and tried to solve it by digging.
Oilers have to react with personnel changes, but they can’t overreact
The first hour of Real Kyper & Bourne is aired in Toronto only, and its focus is on the Toronto Maple Leafs, so a lot of my attention goes there. I watched the Leafs fall short in 2024-25 and let Mitch Marner walk, with the plans being to spend that money on … that’s not entirely clear. The point is a lot of people felt like the core couldn’t win, and that Player X had to go, or Player Y had to go, and they’d figure it out from there. It was all about who had to go, with no thought about who they needed to add.
There’s going to be temptation for the Oilers to get rid of guys who they feel let them down. To ship out Darnell Nurse or to unload Mattias Ekholm or Walman or Frederic or whoever. Maybe to not bring back certain UFAs. I would look at it that way with caution, as you’re better to look around the league and say, “How do we get that guy here?” rather than the opposite.
The Oilers need more help, as their captain just called them an “average team with high expectations.” They won’t be above average by shipping guys out because the fanbase wants blood. Who are you adding?
Connor McDavid’s future
McDavid didn’t sign a two-year extension to demand a trade before it even begins. So much of what has made their team great is still there, and given how many UFAs they have, they’ve got the luxury to reshape parts of their roster. I have no doubt he’s as committed as ever to play in Edmonton, to win in Edmonton, and to try to do what the Florida Panthers are trying to do: get healthy, have a longer summer, regroup, and get back at it.
Now, if the Pacific is better than expected, and the Oilers start poorly next year, could that change? In theory. But of all the talented players who have their Canadian teams worried — Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk and Connor Hellebuyck are in this group — I worry least about McDavid. He’ll play there until it’s clear they’ve got no shot, and when he decides it’s time to go, I have no doubt he’ll say as much.
And so, they just need to be sure they give him a shot next season, right? To just be in the handful of teams who have a chance?