And then there were four.
With the conclusion of the divisional round, we’re just two games away from finding out who will play in Super Bowl LIX.
The most notable win from the divisional round was the No. 6 Washington Commanders’ upset of the No. 1 team in the NFC, the Detroit Lions.
The Commanders will play their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, in the NFC championship game.
In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread and for the over/under using football odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
While the Chiefs have many advantages on paper, specifically in the trenches, I’m siding with Buffalo at +2.
The Bills led the NFL in turnover differential at plus-24 during the regular season and are already plus-3 in the post-season.
In the first game against the Chiefs, Buffalo intercepted and sacked Mahomes twice.
This defence complements the Bills offence extremely well, as they get in good field position.
Buffalo wants to run the ball, be it with quarterback Josh Allen or running backs James Cook and Ray Davis.
In the first game, the Chiefs allowed 104 rushing yards to the Bills. Allen had over 260 passing yards and a rushing touchdown.
Just last week, the Chiefs surrendered 149 rushing yards and a rushing TD to the Houston Texans.
This game isn’t in Buffalo like Week 11, but I trust this rushing attack to keep the Chiefs and Mahomes off the field and steal this one on the road.
SPREAD PICK: Bills +2 (-115)
The Bills are an intriguing team.
They’re a borderline top-10 passing and rushing attack but averaged the second-most points per game in the regular season at 30.9. Through two post-season games, they’re averaging 29 points.
A big part is their ability to generate turnovers, put themselves in short but favourable field positions, and capitalize. They’re second in red zone touchdown percentage at 68.42 per cent.
However, as we saw in Week 11, both teams are more than capable of scoring 20-plus points. It helps to have two of the best QBs in the league.
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since his outing against the Bills, but he’s had nine turnover-worthy plays since.
As for picking the over, I see multiple avenues.
First, it’s a shootout between elite QBs.
Alternatively, the Bills can turn those turnover-worthy plays from Mahomes into turnovers. With those turnovers, Mahomes will need to score to keep pace.
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 47.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
It may seem ludicrous after the Commanders downed the Lions, but I’m taking the Eagles -6.
Yes, the Commanders exploded in the divisional round. Heck, they even put up 36 on the Eagles in Week 16. However, it’s important to remember the context surrounding the latter.
The Eagles held a 21-7 lead after the first quarter, but Eagles QB Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion.
Backup Kenny Pickett came in, had an interception, lost a fumble, and averaged just 6 yards per attempt.
Don’t forget, Eagles WR DeVonta Smith dropped a third-down pass late in the game, which would’ve allowed the Eagles to run out the clock and win. Instead, they kicked a field goal, went up five, and lost.
I expect this to be closer to the Week 11 matchup, when the Eagles won 26-18.
SPREAD PICK: Eagles -6 (-115)
While I’m not predicting a score of 26-18 again this time, I think we see a much lower-scoring affair than Week 16’s 69 points.
Let’s not forget that these are two strong pass defences. The Eagles allowed just 174.2 passing yards (first), while the Commanders surrendered a mere 189.5 passing yards (third) per game.
In the regular season, the Eagles had the best defence overall regarding yards allowed at 278.4.
As for the Commanders, their run defence has been weak. They allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game (30th) during the regular season, and that has since gone up to 151 per game during the post-season.
These two teams want to run the ball: The Eagles with Hurts and Barkley, and the Commanders with a combination of QB Jayden Daniels’ zone reads and RBs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.
I’ll take the Eagles 27-20.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 47.5 (-110)