With two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is coming into focus, but there’s still hope for teams on the outside looking in.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the No. 6 and 7 seeds in the AFC. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are fighting for the NFC South title.
With all this in mind, we look now to Week 17.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread using lines from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Steelers wide receiver George Pickens has been cleared to play this week, so there will be fewer concerns about their offence. They’ve scored 17 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Still, the Chiefs’ defence has six interceptions over the last two games. Kansas City’s offence leaves much to be desired, but I think they’ll cover on the road with this spread.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Texans lost WR Tank Dell for the rest of the season with a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL, leaving them with fewer weapons. The defence has played well recently, but they’re facing a Ravens team led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has only four picks. The Ravens pass defence has stepped up, allowing 218 passing yards or less in five straight games. The Ravens’ offence and defence are firing on all cylinders.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears’ offence has been rather lacklustre since Thanksgiving, but QB Caleb Williams threw for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdown passes in Week 16. He’s been exceptionally better at home this season, completing 66.28 per cent of his passes for 1,805 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one pick. All of the Bears’ wins have come at home. In this game, they’ll host a Seattle Seahawks defence that’s allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight games.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off a fantastic Week 16 road performance against the Bills. Now, they’ll host the Los Angeles Chargers travelling East. The Chargers have allowed 263 or more passing yards and multiple touchdowns in their last two games. Patriots QB Drake Maye is coming off a 261-yard, two-touchdown performance. He’s completed 67.6 per cent of his passes and has 389 rushing yards. They’ll be competitive enough to cover.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
The Bengals shut down the passing attack of the Cleveland Browns in Week 16, but I believe that was more who was operating the offence than their defence. Before Week 16, the Bengals allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games. The Broncos offence has scored 29 points or more in five straight games. They’ll be able to hang in there against this excellent Bengals offence.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams scored 19 points or less in the last two games, while the Cardinals scored 30 or more. The Cardinals beat the Rams earlier this season 41-10. I’m expecting the Cardinals and QB Kyler Murray to pass the ball well here. The Rams have allowed 250-plus passing yards in two of the last three games and four passing touchdowns in that same stretch.
PICK: Cardinals +6.5 (-110)
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
I took the Bills as double-digit favourites at home in Week 16, and they barely squeaked by, but this one feels different. The Jets are an odd team in that their offence is moving the ball well, but they barely scored in Week 16, and their defence allows plenty of points. They scored just nine points in Week 16 despite never punting. The Bills could cover this game even if they score just 21.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Given how bad the Raiders are, it might be difficult to imagine, but I think this Saints squad may be worse. There’s simply no one on offence. Their top receiver in their 34-0 loss in Week 16 was tight end Foster Moreau, with two catches for 33 yards. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler led the team in rushing with 28 yards. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but take the Raiders on the road.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m conflicted about this game. The Panthers have been fairly solid against the pass lately, but Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has nine passing touchdowns and 288 or more passing yards in each of the last three games. Meanwhile, the Panthers offence is coming off a 36-point effort. That said, they scored just 14 points at home in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys as the favourite. The Buccaneers win this one by 10.
PICK: Buccaneers -8 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
At this point, the Jaguars are playing for the No. 1 overall pick after losing to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. It’s unclear if the Titans will start Mason Rudolph or go back to Will Levis, but either way, I think they have the better collection of skill players and the better defence. I’ll take the Titan plus the singular point.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
The Giants are likely without QB Drew Lock, running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., and maybe more. I don’t trust the Colts’ passing attack with Anthony Richardson at the helm, but that’s OK because the Giants are the second-worst rushing defence in the NFL, surrendering 142.6 per game. Now they’ll have to deal with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. This Giants offence is far too inept.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts left Week 16 with a concussion, making a Week 17 start highly unlikely. If that’s the case, I expect the Cowboys to cover on the road. The offence has been playing fairly well lately, scoring 27 or more in four of its last five games. The concern for them is their run defence. I do believe they’ll get steamrolled by Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, but I’m not ready to trust Kenny Pickett enough to pick apart the Cowboys’ defence. The Cowboys squeak by with the cover.
PICK: Cowboys +9.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
If Dorian Thompson-Robinson suits up, I will always take the other team. To be blunt, DTR simply isn’t a good QB. The Bengals are 28th in points allowed per game, even after Week 16, where they allowed just six to the Browns. The Browns’ offence cannot move the ball with DTR under center. It’s not happening.
PICK: Dolphins -6.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Packers had a shutout win on Monday Night Football, but some players, including Christian Watson and Evan Williams, got banged up in that game. Packers QB Jordan Love hasn’t turned the ball over recently, but the Vikings’ defence is one of the best in the league regarding interceptions, averaging 1.47 per game. Love will be better than his three-interception performance against the Vikings earlier this season, but Minnesota will cover at home.
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
In his first NFL start, Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons beat the Giants. However, I don’t think the same will be said this week. The Falcons have a league-low 26 sacks this season. When kept clean in the pocket, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels completes 76.7 per cent of his passes for 2,563 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He will pick apart the Falcons defence.
PICK: Commanders -4 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have a chance to do some damage on offence against this depleted Lions defence, but it will be extremely difficult to keep up with the Lions’ scoring. The 49ers allow one rushing touchdown per game to opposing RBs, and have given up multiple touchdown passes in three of their last five games. The line of 3.5 feels like a trap, but I’ll ride with the Lions here on the road as they get their revenge from the 2023 NFC championship game.