The Bitcoin and crypto market experienced notable price gains last week, fueled by positive developments in the Ripple lawsuit and declining US consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) prices. Ripple’s favorable court ruling propelled altcoins like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Polygon (MATIC) to double-digit gains.
Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, briefly reached a new yearly high at $31,840, although it was unable to sustain the bullish breakout. Despite encouraging US economic data, profit-taking prevailed during the last trading day of the week. As the market enters a new week, the focus shifts to the US Dollar Index (DXY) and its potential impact on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.
The DXY Is In The Spotlight
Nevertheless, it is worth looking at the lower-level data this week because the US dollar index is at a crossroads. The DXY is below 100 for the first time since April 22, 2022, and numerous analysts are forecasting a deep fall towards 90. If the DXY continues to decline and hits new lows, this is historically very positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin and crypto (due to the inverse correlation).
However, ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole stated in his latest note that the US dollar could find support ahead of the Fed’s next rate decision on July 26. According to Pesole, the dollar could regain some of its recent losses as investors act more cautiously ahead of the Fed’s decision next week, when a rate hike is expected.
The Fed may not be ready to throw in the towel on further rate hikes after this month, Pesole said. “Core inflation is down, but the labor market remains very tight and other economic indicators remain resilient,” he said. The DXY dollar index “may find some support after rising back above 100.00,” added Pesole.
Crucial Macro Data This Week
One crucial data point to watch is the final US retail sales figures for June, to be published by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday, 18 July (8:30 am EST). Retail sales serve as a vital indicator for assessing private households’ consumption sentiment. Analysts expect a month-on-month increase of +0.4% for June, reflecting a stabilization in retail sales. If estimates are met or exceeded, it suggests a brightening in consumer sentiment, potentially fueling the correction in the DXY.
On the same day, the preliminary estimates of US building permits for June will also be released. Building permits serve as a leading indicator of the US housing market’s health. Analysts forecast a marginal decline from 1.496 million permits issued in May to 1.495 million in June. If the estimates are met or surpassed, the DXY could take another hit.
Thursday, July 20, brings the latest manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed, considered a leading indicator for the important ISM purchasing managers’ index. Analysts expect an improvement from -13.7 in the previous month to -9.7 in July. If forecasts are met or exceeded, it would indicate a stabilization in the business outlook for US industrial companies. A positive reaction in the US equity market, combined with a reduced probability of an impending recession, would likely impact the crypto market positively.
Remarkably, earnings season is also beginning with reports from the big banks as well as Tesla, Netflix and TSM on the big tech company side. Christophe Barraud, chief economist, strategist at Market Securities stated, “S&P 500 likely to post 3rd consecutive quarter of earnings decline in 2Q2023.”
Key Events This Week:
1. Retail Sales data – Tuesday
2. Building Permit data – Wednesday
3. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
4. Jobless Claims data – Thursday
6. ~10% of S&P 500 reports earnings
We’re 10 days out from the Fed meeting.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 16, 2023
Bitcoin And Crypto Spot Bids
The second focus this week should be on investor market behavior. As renowned analyst Skew (@52Skew) explained via Twitter today, the Bitcoin market currently seems to be “pretty short” again, especially on Binance. On the exchange, spot supply is piling up above price, according to Skew, which is why he expects profit-taking on price spikes. At the same time, there are many spot bids floating between $30,000 to $29,500, in the lower end of the current trading range between $29,800 and $31,500.
However, the founders of Glassnode expressed optimism in their latest analysis that the Bitcoin price will break out of this range after nearly a month of consolidation. “Bitcoin’s bullish trend remains in play, pushing the potentially challenging bottom levels to $28.7 and $29.5k,” the analysts note, but also warn that “the spot CVD needs to hold the uptrend to break above the supply wall set at $32k, which means that this break above brings in new players willing to bid (buy, market orders) to push the price higher.”
At press time, the Bitcoin price remained flat, trading at $30,274.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com