I’ve always felt like the Maple Leafs should use the regular season as more of a playoff testing ground. I believe they’re easily a True Talent playoff team. So, knowing they should get there even if they aren’t always optimized for single-game success means they should be able to experiment with lines and tactics without the bottom falling out of their record.
But telling a coach they should arrange their team in a way they believe doesn’t give them the best chance to win each game each night is like telling your kids vegetables will be better for them than pizza in the long run. They can know it’s true, but given their druthers, they’re going to go after what they immediately want, rather than live for a future that may never come. (I suppose this is essentially the human experience in a nutshell.)
With the above in mind, let’s jump into some Leafs Thoughts, the first of which is directly tied to that seemingly random introduction.
The Nylander-Matthews-Marner first line needs games together, and patience
I know this is not going to be the Leafs first line come playoffs, and you know it too. But go ahead and watch any team that’s gone to the Stanley Cup Final – they lose some games along the way. And in doing so, they often need goals, and are chasing offence, so they load up their best players on one line at crucial points.
According to the research we’ve done here at Sportsnet, prior to Wednesday night this line hadn’t started a game together since 2020. William Nylander says he can’t remember them ever playing a full 60-minute game as a unit (he is probably wrong).
So shouldn’t they get some real, substantial reps to chase some chemistry before it’s crunch time?
Maybe it isn’t optimizing your lineup for a game tonight, but giving these guys a minimum of three to five games together should at least pay some dividends down the road if the team needs offence in a hurry.
I believe that elite players do some things that are unique, and their linemates might need time to adjust. Since you have three unique players here, it should take more time for them to figure out how to work as a unit. But when and if they do click, they should be able to do something most lines simply cannot.
The point is, Craig Berube shouldn’t bail on them if they struggle, nor should he switch it up simply because it isn’t an optimized lineup in the short term. It’s Game 33 in December, it’s the perfect time try some things and aim to be the best version of your team in April, May, and dare I say it, June.
Bobby McMann has become integral to the Leafs’ attack
Often glossed over in the chaos of the Leafs’ first-round loss to the Boston Bruins last season was that McMann dressed in zero of the seven games due to injury. Last season he finished fifth on the team in goals per game, impressive considering he didn’t really start scoring until after Christmas. His absence was certainly part of the reason the Leafs got stuck on two goals so often.
McMann is now on pace for 20-25 goals this season, but more than that, you can see how he fundamentally alters the look of their depth scoring. The Leafs had been dressing two offensively hopeless fourth lines for much of early December, but since McMann’s return, the third line can’t stop scoring.
Of the forwards dressing this Friday against Buffalo, only Ryan Reaves, Steven Lorentz and Max Pacioretty throw more hits (per 60). In speed bursts over 22 m.p.h., McMann ranks in the 95th percentile league wide (which is extremely good, most can’t even hit that speed). He’s in the 92nd percentile in speed bursts over 20 m.p.h., and these speed stats are using raw counts, meaning he’d be significantly higher if he hadn’t missed eight games. So he’s fast, he hits, and he scores.
Breaking: He makes them better.
Caveat: When he’s healthy.
Matt Murray is the right guy for right now
Matt Murray makes a ton of sense for the Leafs right now. They are not a team at a point in their contender arc where they’re saying “Let’s play the young guy with potential, and cross our fingers he can do it when the pressure mounts.” They want players they know have done it before.
Murray’s two Stanley Cups have been well covered. His decline was too, but he’d tell you much of that was tied to injury, and after having both hips operated on, he seems healthy once again. He’s just 30 years old, and he’s posted fantastic numbers in the AHL.
Dennis Hildeby has played just nine games this season. He should play more in the AHL, while Murray will be content to get what he can in the NHL, while trying to prove he can be the goalie he used to be. The Leafs have injury uncertainty in the crease, but if you have enough guys like that, surely someone will be humming come playoff time?
• I said before the season Nick Robertson can score 20-25 in this league, and after 25 games he’s on pace for like … 13. But I’m not retracting that, even if it doesn’t happen as soon as I thought it would. That said, if he stays healthy and someone lets him play, he’s got a motor and his shot is insane. He’ll score a clump of goals somewhere.
• If Joseph Woll was healthy all year, is he in the group of elite tenders around the league? Just a tier below? Watching him, it’s tough to imagine he’s too far behind that Connor Hellebuyck tier. Every goalie has off nights, but he seems to be able to dial it in even when he lets in a bad one. If he’s not just a good NHL starter, but an elite one, the Leafs’ Cup window may be open longer than most thought.
• The Leafs have blown the fewest leads in the NHL this season They can really lock it down now, which is new. Chris Tanev is beyond valuable, and entirely changes the Leafs D-corps.
• Morgan Rielly is fascinating. Like, if your friend dated a huge number of people over a couple years, then told you they all ended up being toxic or evil or whatever, eventually wouldn’t you be like “Maybe it’s you?” Well, that the Leafs continue to hunt to find him the perfect partner that isn’t Ron Hainsey or Luke Schenn kinda has me feeling that way. Maybe it’s him?
I hope everyone enjoys some great hockey over the coming weeks, and has a happy holiday season.