The Toronto Blue Jays’ disappointing 27-29 record can be explained in several ways, but the most intuitive explanation is that the team simply can’t stay healthy.
As of Thursday morning, the team is missing three hitters who could inhabit middle-of-the-lineup spots (Addison Barger, Alejandro Kirk and Anthony Santander), five credible starting options (Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce, José Berríos and Max Scherzer) and three useful relievers (Yimi Garcia, Tommy Nance and Joe Mantiply).
For those who see that as more of an excuse than a valid explanation, another commonly-cited reason 2026 has been rough on the team is a lack of power. After hitting 1.56 home runs per game during their 2025 post-season run, the Blue Jays are at 0.93 this season. They currently rank 20th in the majors in round-trippers (52) and 25th in isolated slugging (.132).
Those two factors loom large in the story of the Blue Jays’ underachieving, but there are other cracks in the foundation, and one of them is a lack of team speed. While the 2025 club wasn’t full of burners, the 2026 version is even slower. The chart below shows the sprint speed of the 13 position players on the Blue Jays roster as of Thursday morning (before the addition of Charles McAdoo) and their league-wide rank at their position — or the position they play the most:
Raw speed doesn’t always equate to base-running effectiveness — just ask Josh Naylor, who has 42 steals since the beginning of the 2025 season despite a sprint speed lower than any current Blue Jay. The relationship is undeniable, though, and it’s no surprise that the Blue Jays rank 26th in the majors in steals (25) and 25th in BsR (-1.8). They weren’t good by those metrics last year, but it was less consequential for a team in the top half of the league in home runs that wasn’t as reliant on scoring with balls in play.
In 2026, Toronto ranks fifth in the majors in singles, but the team’s lack of speed makes those hits less potent, as the Blue Jays’ extra bases taken percentage (38 per cent) ranks 25th in MLB. That plays a role in the team scoring just 29 per cent of their total runners — a mark that ranks 21st. A lack of power and timely hitting plays a role in that number as well, but the Blue Jays’ station-to-station nature is a notable part of the picture.
Another place where a lack of speed is hurting Toronto is the outfield. Blue Jays pitchers have enjoyed working in front of outfielders with elite range in the Varsho era, but the situation has changed this season. Speed and outfield range aren’t perfectly correlated, but it’s critical to tracking down flyballs — something the Blue Jays have not been doing well this season.
Between 2023 and 2025, Toronto ranked second in the majors in Statcast outfield range runs (+49). This year, the team sits 18th (-2). Part of that is Varsho posting a narrowly above-average number (+1), after consistently producing stellar results in previous years. The Gold Glover’s sprint speed dropped from the 77th percentile last year to 48th in 2026, which is undoubtedly playing a role in that change.
Outfield configurations that include both Sánchez and Pinango are another problem. The rookie’s misadventures aren’t solely based on his lack of wheels, but that pair’s plodding ways hurt the Blue Jays’ defensive numbers. They have a combined -3 Statcast range runs.
Straw can still go get the ball, but his recent offensive struggles have meant just two starts for him in Toronto’s last 14 games.
The result is that 14.2 per cent of flyballs in play against the Blue Jays in 2026 have fallen for hits. That’s the second-highest mark in the majors and noticeably above the 10.4 per cent the team posted from 2023-25, MLB’s seventh-lowest rate.
Above-average team speed is not a prerequisite for team success. The Blue Jays just took a series from a Miami Marlins squad that may be the MLB’s fastest — and is certainly its most prolific on the bases — and that’s a 26-31 ballclub that has playoff odds of 4.7 per cent, according to FanGraphs.
Wheels don’t win ballgames in a vacuum, but they help around the edges. Their absence is not the biggest issue dragging down the Blue Jays, but it’s a meaningful one. Toronto’s high-contact, low-power offence would function better if paired with an ability to swipe bags and get aggressive on the bases instead of going station-to-station. Having a relatively slow outfield, outside of Straw, undoubtedly hurts the Blue Jays’ pitching staff.
These issues exist at the margins, but a single run has decided more than a quarter (28.5 per cent) of Blue Jays games in 2026. The team is 6-10 in those contests. Slight edges — or the lack of them — matter. Unfortunately for Toronto, this isn’t an easily solvable problem. Adding a base-stealing threat or a better corner outfield defender may be plausible in-season, but the makeup of the roster won’t be radically altered. This deficiency is baked into the 2026 Blue Jays.
Minimizing its importance is possible, but it will require better performance in other areas. With several key players returning from injury and a few healthy hitters who have more to give, there is plenty of internal improvement potential for the Blue Jays. Later in the season, a lack of speed may not even be a notable issue, but it will take a more powerful offence that allows more runners to score at a leisurely jog — and gives pitchers some margin for error — to get there.