In the days leading up to the 2026 draft lottery, a storm seemed to be brewing around the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The sting of a disappointing 2025-26 campaign was still fresh. Questions about the future of franchise cornerstone Auston Matthews swirled. And the hockey world seemed mixed on the hiring of new general manager John Chayka. But then came a turn of luck, a dramatic shift in fortune — the first-overall pick in the 2026 draft fell into the organization’s lap.
The Maple Leafs will select No. 1 for the first time since 2016, the last time they missed the post-season. They’ll draft first for just the third time in the club’s history, the last two turns at No. 1 bringing in franchise legends Matthews and Wendel Clark.
This time around, though, the decision about who to select for that top spot is trickier.
Two dynamic offensive talents continue to vie for top billing among scouts’ rankings, while a number of elite defencemen — who the Maple Leafs arguably need much more — sit just outside the top three.
Making the decision even more consequential is the state of the Maple Leafs franchise at this current moment — after missing the post-season for the first time in a decade, the club heads into 2026-27 with a fresh slate. A new GM leads the front office, a new head coach will take over the bench, and some notable roster surgery seems all but certain. Making the right call on June 26 will be key in helping set the Leafs up for a season of redemption, and for Chayka and Co. beginning their first summer in Toronto on the right foot.
So, what should the Maple Leafs do? Toronto essentially has five options on the table: draft one of the two standout prospects in the 2026 class (Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg), draft someone else at No. 1, trade down to draft a lower-ranked prospect that would better fill an organizational need (a defenceman), or trade the No. 1 pick away in exchange for a current NHLer who could help them right now.
With a month to go before draft day arrives, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of each of those options:
Route 1: Draft Gavin McKenna first-overall
Pros: The pros here are clear — drafting McKenna seems the safest option for Toronto. The Canadian kid has been the talk of the 2026 draft for years, and for the average fan, there’s enough name recognition there that the selection would be celebrated by the Leafs faithful. More importantly, McKenna seems on track to become an incredible talent in the big leagues. After a dominant final year in the WHL that saw him rack up 129 points in 56 games for Medicine Hat, the teenager turned in a productive freshman year with Penn State, collecting 51 points in 35 games at the college level — 33 of those points came in his final 18 games as he caught fire down the stretch. There’s no question that the Whitehorse, Yukon product would be an impactful addition for the Leafs, particularly in replacing some of Mitch Marner’s lost dynamism on Matthews’ wing.
Cons: The potential of the draft’s other top dog looms large. While McKenna may be the safest pick for the Leafs, there’s a chance he’s not actually the best player in this pool, as scouts appear split on whether McKenna or Stenberg is the true top talent of the 2026 class (more on that in a moment). In any draft year featuring two elite prospects battling for the No. 1 spot, the risk is pretty simple — if Toronto drafts McKenna, sees him struggle in any way, and watches Stenberg go on to become an all-world talent in the NHL, that what-if will hang over the Maple Leafs for the next decade.
Route 2: Draft Ivar Stenberg first-overall
Pros: He might not be as familiar a name for the average Leafs fan, but Stenberg’s promise leaves the Leafs brass with a serious conundrum. The winger has begun to edge past McKenna in pre-draft rankings around the hockey world. Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala — formerly the director of amateur scouting for the Florida Panthers — has the young Swede ranked as his No. 1 prospect heading into the draft. He pointed to Stenberg’s versatility and defensive play as a key factor, calling the Frolunda HC product a more complete player. But don’t sleep on Stenberg’s offensive skill — playing against men in the Swedish league, the teenager put up the third-most points of any draft-eligible player in SHL history. The only players who produced more? Daniel and Henrik Sedin. The central goal for Toronto must be walking away with the best player they can in June, and Stenberg looks like he could fit the bill.
Cons: Much like the McKenna route, it all simply comes down to who winds up being the better player down the line. Given the stakes here and the state of the franchises that could select them, both young stars figure to be linked as they start their NHL careers. If Toronto takes a swing and drafts Stenberg, and then watches McKenna emerge as an all-world talent — not only in the NHL but on the international stage, in a Team Canada sweater — it’ll sting for years.
Route 3: Draft someone else first overall
Pros: It’s tough to see many pros here, to be honest. Though the Leafs may have more pressing organizational needs elsewhere in the lineup, they no doubt could use some more firepower after a season that saw them finish in the middle of the pack offensively. Drafting McKenna or Stenberg seems the clearest path to upgrading in that regard on draft day. There is a promising centre in the mix in Caleb Malhotra — ranked the third-best prospect in this class by Bukala — and the Leafs have seen their depth down the middle worn thin over the past couple of years. Still, taking Malhotra, or anyone else, above McKenna or Stenberg at No. 1 would seem a wild gamble.
Cons: The downside here is the very real potential of Toronto walking away, having left the best and second-best prospects on the board in pursuit of filling a specific need. Go back through the history of the draft, particularly the top end of it, and the best route has often been the simplest one — select the best player available, figure out everything else later. Going against the grain and drafting someone else first-overall would likely mean watching one of McKenna or Stenberg fall to Vancouver at No. 3 — no doubt a tough potential pill for the Leafs faithful to swallow, unless Toronto’s pick vastly exceeds expectations.
Route 4: Trade down and draft a defenceman
Pros: There’s an intriguing case to be made here. Amid the hype, pressure and expectation that comes with being granted the No. 1 pick, it seems absurd not to simply go the usual route and select the player Toronto believes sits at the top of this draft class. But zoom out and look at this entire Maple Leafs era, the different iterations of their roster and the different ways in which they’ve come up short, and one thing has long seemed to be the key missing piece in Toronto: a true, blue-chip, all-world defenceman.
They don’t come around often, and barring a rare bit of chaos that allows one to become available on the trade market (see: Hughes, Quinn), these star rearguards are only found in the draft. Toronto has a rare chance to add that franchise-altering piece to the organization now. And there is some genuine blue-line talent on the board — right-handed defenders Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid, and left-handed defender Carson Carels, all project to be top-pairing stars. If the Maple Leafs have a chance to trade down a few spots and add that high-upside blue-liner, plus the return that would come with giving up the top spot, they could walk away with the type of back-end game-changer that’s eluded them for decades, and some other assets with which to keep building.
Cons: Even so, there is a risk of overthinking here, of trying to engineer a perfect result rather than just taking the opportunity in front of them. Chayka has been burned at the draft for trying something similar before — in 2019, the then-Arizona Coyotes GM traded the No. 14 pick and a second-rounder to Philly for the No. 11 pick. Chayka drafted defender Victor Soderstrom 11th-overall, touting him as a crucial addition to Arizona’s long-term core. The young Swede never found his footing in the NHL. Philly, meanwhile, used that 14th-overall pick to draft Cam York.
This would be a very different situation — Chayka would be trading down and adding assets, rather than trying to move up, and the defensive prospects he would be choosing from seem more of a sure thing. Still, if they swung such a deal and it didn’t pan out as expected, relinquishing the chance to add McKenna or Stenberg could wind up becoming the defining failure of this front office’s legacy.
Route 5: Trade the No. 1 pick for an immediate-impact NHLer
Pros: This would be the nuclear option. It all comes down to how Toronto views its organizational timeline. After a disappointing 2025-26, the most level-headed approach would be drafting a blue-chip prospect first overall and trying to methodically rebuild the rest of their roster ahead of a 2026-27 campaign that brings no guarantees. That said, the Maple Leafs remain under pressure to convince Matthews to stay in Toronto beyond the final two years of his contract.
If Chayka and Co. are motivated to turn the club around sooner rather than later, by trying to put together a lineup that can make some real noise as soon as next season, might there be a deal to be had for a current NHLer who could make a more immediate impact? It would depend heavily on who exactly would be on the other end of such a trade, and the list of names that would make it worthwhile is a short one.
Cons: Given where the Leafs are at right now, sacrificing the long-term potential of McKenna or Stenberg to roll the dice on short-term success would be an incredible risk. Toronto’s been gifted a golden opportunity to add some much-needed youth to the organization — and it truly was a gift, given the Maple Leafs had just an 8.5 per cent chance to win the draft lottery.
The bigger picture is key here. After how last season ended, there’s a sense that this era of Leafs hockey might be winding to a close. To trade away the No. 1 pick and give up the chance to start turning the page, to justify giving up a decade of performance from the likes of McKenna or Stenberg to try to squeeze a little bit more out of this chapter, the Maple Leafs would need to hit an absolute home run on the trade market.
Barring a deal that would bring in a genuine all-world superstar and a season of serious post-season noise, this move would have the potential of aging terribly as McKenna and Stenberg find their footing in the league, and looking worse with each passing season of their careers.