Why firing Craig Berube gives Leafs, Chayka a chance at a new era

By all accounts there wasn’t a person in the building who didn’t like the man. He handled himself ably during his time in Toronto, but the decision to move on just makes too much sense.

Below are eight thoughts on the decision, and the situation moving forward.

1. If Chayka was going to be taken seriously as the guy in charge of the team’s direction, this had to happen

You simply cannot conduct a thorough search for potential heads of hockey operations, decide to hire the 36-year-old with an analytical bent, and then move into a third season with Berube after the team saw a 30-point standings free-fall.

There are three angles as to why this had to happen, and one is perception. Nobody would’ve believed that Berube was the GM’s chosen type of coach, or that he had a recent track record in favour of keeping him, so we’d all be asking “why?” The answer to that would’ve been “Well, you don’t want to fire too many coaches, and using a bullet early would hurt the GM,” or “The people above Chayka won’t let him fire Berube,” both of which come off poorly. If you don’t fire a guy you think should be fired just to protect your own job, you’re putting yourself ahead of the team. If Chayka were perceived as just doing what those above him say to do, it’d look like he has no authority. 

So for perception sake, moving on from Berube wasn’t just a win, it was a must.

Another angle is the whole legitimately trying to win thing. They don’t have their first-round pick next year, so finishing worse than bottom-five would be abject disaster. And it had become clear that the Leafs were dragging under Berube, that he wasn’t making adjustments, and that how he was deploying the roster just wasn’t working. If Chayka truly has an analytical bent, he would surely want someone who could coach a team to metrics that weren’t somewhere between last and dead last in the league, particularly given the roster is not devoid of talent.

And finally, if they’re serious about keeping Auston Matthews – not for this upcoming season, but for the remaining best years of his career – you want to show him you’re not looking at this group of players as lambs being led to the slaughter next season. You’re legitimately fighting back, trying to make positive change, and aiming to win. 

This is a much more serious move than the past couple seasons which were defined by a lack of proactive action.

2. With waning fan engagement, this had to happen

Leafs fans, boy, they’ve been pretty down on the the squad this past season, and justifiably so. Things went sideways in a big way (what was there to like this past year, really?) to the point where if you were online the past few days you’d have seen the groundswell of fans opposed to keeping Berube. 

It seemed like such a no-brainer that a fresh start was needed that fans just assumed it would happen. When there were reports that it may not happen, and in fact was likely to not happen, the backlash started gaining momentum. Online movements started to push for the coach’s ouster, and I truly believe that had the Leafs kept him heading into next season, you’d have had a far less engaged fanbase that would’ve assumed the team wasn’t serious about competing. 

3. Chayka is on fire out of the gate

Chayka was about the most controversial hire the Leafs could’ve made, and that still remains the case. I think there’s a lot of people in hockey who resent him being given this huge opportunity after how it went in Arizona, his age, and recent employment history. But if you were to ask “What would the perfect first 10 days of his tenure look like,” the answer might be “I dunno, they win the draft lottery to get the first overall pick, and then get a fresh start at the coaching position?” 

You’d probably also add “get the captain’s approval on the team’s direction” next, but as far as hot starts go, you can’t ask for much more. I think it’s reasonable to suggest that not everyone above Chayka wants to pay Berube something like $9 million over the next two seasons plus whatever the next coach makes, but that seems to be a conversation he’s come out on the right side of for the team. These early wins have to help Chayka’s public perception.

4. Craig Berube didn’t deliver on either edict – systems or motivation

The Leafs had a reputation for being super skilled but lacking grit, which left them unable to get over the hump. That made it seem like Berube’s hiring was just what the doctor ordered, a big tough guy who would surely hold people to account and squeeze more out of them. 

His reputation, as I understood it, was that he wasn’t a great X’s and O’s guy (so he needed to be surrounded by those who were), but that he was a great motivator who guys loved to play for. It became clear immediately that Leafs players weren’t going to be held any more accountable than they were under Sheldon Keefe, and in fact, it was almost the opposite. William Nylander seemed to win an early power struggle for his right to play however he wants to play, and skill guys like Easton Cowan and Matias Maccelli were scratched often while a veteran like Max Domi ate top line minutes despite some truly terrible defensive play.

So without anybody being held accountable, and without the X’s and O’s, there weren’t many tools in the bag with which he could fix this team.

5. Brendan Shanahan’s excellent tenure as Leafs boss gets somewhat tainted

The Shanahan era in Toronto was mostly comprised of great years despite the annual post-season disappointments. The team was run professionally, proudly, and competitively. But there did seem to be this simmering power struggle at the top between Shanahan and Kyle Dubas, and in the wake of Dubas leaving, you got the sense Shanahan, perhaps, wanted his next hires to be more amenable to his suggestions. 

Whether that perception is true or not, Shanahan’s decisions to hire Brad Treliving and Berube just as the team was running up against some serious hurdles reflect poorly on the end of his tenure. The decisions seemed rushed and neither hire meaningfully moved the needle in a positive direction for the club. 

As both Treliving and Berube depart, the franchise is officially far worse off than it was before they were hired. That’s not to outright blame them for it, but you can’t say Shanny’s final big hires help his legacy in any way.

6. They can truly turn the page – fresh eyeballs on usage, systems, and Auston Matthews

My big concern for next year was getting to that well-discussed cut-off point of American Thanksgiving, seeing the Leafs using similar deployment, losing, and realizing “Uh-oh the season is lost, we don’t have our draft pick, and we should fire the coach to try and salvage this thing.” I mentioned Domi being used on the top line, and we’d have continued to see that if Berube remained. But even beyond that, Berube just wasn’t going to have some new ideas. Maybe someone else will come in and want to see Nylander at centre, or Tavares at wing, or a different power play formation…or, or, or. 

Maybe the next coach won’t stuff Matthews in the defensive zone like he’s a shutdown centre alone. Maybe it will be someone who wants to move the puck laterally and make a play rather than dumping it in. Maybe the next guy can live with turnovers as a trade-off for their breakout this past year being “smash it off the glass.” Matthews’ two worst seasons came under Berube. Can someone else get him back to his game?

I don’t know what will change. I just know that what they were doing before wasn’t working.

7. This should be a signal to UFAs that the Leafs are serious here

I know there won’t be much available on UFA day this year, but if you’re a player considering joining the Leafs, it would’ve been a hard sell that things were going to be much different in Toronto if they were coming back with the same coach. Now you get to do the big sell: First overall pick, Matthews still here (as far as anyone knows), new GM, Sundin in the mix, new coach, we’re serious about trying to win.

It makes Toronto a more desirable option.

8. So … who are they going to hire?

Well, it’s going to have to be someone who respects the numbers, right? Since that’s Chayka’s thing? That sounds like Jay Woodcroft to me. And it needs to be someone with experience, which also seems like Woodcroft. He dealt with superstars in a Canadian market in Edmonton where they had a great record, and he just seems like the best fit overall for their needs.

Yes Bruce Cassidy is out there, which has to be tempting. There are guys like Gerard Gallant who’ve got plenty of experience. There’s David Carle who just continues to win in college hockey and could be an option. The Carle one is funny, because it would officially be: Analytical GM (Dubas/Chayka), established hockey legend (Shanahan/Sundin), first year progressive coach (Keefe/Carle). We’d be all the way back!

And so, to put a bow on my first-blush reactions, this just made entirely too much sense. Berube has the respect of everyone he interacted with here in Toronto as far as I know, but the case to start fresh was just too strong.

The Leafs have another big decision ahead of them with their upcoming hire, and it’s just one in a summer that promises many. Chayka himself said he’ll need a high “hit rate” at the dish for it to work out.

So far, he’s making pretty good contact.