How drafting first overall changes the Maple Leafs’ outlook

That silly, hollow little thing checks in at just 2.7 grams, but it pulled an enormous weight off the shoulders of a very uncomfortable fanbase.

The numbers 7-2-11-12 came up, one of Toronto’s combinations, and with it they won the right to draft first overall. Now, that doesn’t solve everything for the organization, but it does legitimately change things. They have clarity about their drafting situation (their 2027 and 2028 first-rounders are now gone and unprotected), and that informs where they need to go in the short term (hint: up, up, up). 

As it has been for the past decade in Toronto, the goal is once again to win their next game rather than focus on games three years from now. And, boy, is that more fun to follow.

So let’s talk about those things that’ve changed. Winning the right to draft first overall casts a new light on the state of things in Leafs Nation. Let’s get into what it means.

I noted it above so I’ll be real short here, but it’s the most crucial piece. The higher they finish next year, the worse the pick is that they’ll be giving away. Bottoming out helps nothing. There’s just no incentive to do anything but win. That’s not to say the Leafs should sell the future, as they need to build long-term stability, but with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Easton Cowan, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Joseph Woll, Anthony Stolarz and some other decent pieces, they’re going to try and compete next year.

This should help their case with Matthews

There’s concern in Leaf-land about their captain potentially asking out someday, but the general idea seems to be that they need to show him they can be competitive, and he’ll stick around. He wants to win. That means adding meaningful pieces and getting younger, and boy, does getting the number one overall pick help on those two fronts. Next year’s day one roster has been given its first boost, and if you’re Matthews, that’s a great place to start.

Getting elite talent makes any place more appealing to players around the league

I’ve always thought this was an undersold aspect of having great players: it makes other good players want to play there. During the Leafs most recent string of playoff appearances, a bunch of good players wanted to be a part of what they were doing. Guys like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau and Jason Spezza who wanted on the train. Others that were added via trade (like Jake Muzzin) signed contract extensions because they saw the potential to win. We see it in Edmonton with Connor McDavid too, where players are happy to go there simply to join him (and Leon Draisaitl). 

As you try to get players to come to a woefully overblown “tough” market and stay, having elite talent on the roster only helps.

This gives you options if you want to trade back for a defenceman (plus additional assets)

Everyone knows the Leafs want to add a quality, top-pair, young defenceman, and while they aren’t sitting there at the top of the draft a la Matthew Schaefer, they’re just behind in the three to seven range. If Toronto wanted to get the type of guy everyone knows they’ve been after (say, Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff), they could slide back a few spots, grab one of these blue liners, and add more assets to give someone else the top pick. 

Or they could just draft one of the top wingers, duh

Yeah this is probably the answer. Go get one of the elite playmaking wingers – perhaps the Canadian one, in Gavin McKenna? – and don’t overthink it. If you’re really set on adding a defenceman, this would then give you the option to see if there’s a top-end, NHL-ready blue liner who you could pry from another organization via trade with one of your current wingers. Would Knies or Cowan then be in play? I’m guessing no, but the point is the Leafs have at least got options today that they didn’t have a week ago. 

The “bare-cupboard Leafs” suddenly have a full complement of draft picks

The Leafs backed into trading Nicolas Roy for a huge return (Colorado knew what they wanted and paid for it), which added a first-rounder in the 2027 draft, and a fifth-rounder in 2026. With that, they’ve suddenly got back-to-back full draft years ahead.

The Leafs now have the first overall pick in 2026, followed by the second-rounder from the Scott Laughton trade (which is Buffalo’s pick, actually), then five picks over the following five rounds. 

In 2027, they have Colorado’s first-rounder from the Roy deal, two second-round picks, and then five picks over the following five rounds, again.

Drafting is good, of course. But if great players become available due to general disgruntlement (is Adam Fox happy in New York?), which seems to be prevalent among elite players these days, at least they’ve finally got some assets with which to acquire talent. 

This changes the tone to one of positivity (and offers a good start for Chayka/Sundin)

As I’ve written about in detail, the start of John Chayka’s tenure morphed from one of surprise, to confusion, to an outright adversarial tone at the introductory press conference. But suddenly the memorable image of this week is Mats Sundin smiling an absolute 10,000-megawatt smile while being backlit by the words “Toronto Maple Leaf Hockey Club” as a stroke of good fortune went their way. 

Luck is luck, and there’s nothing more to it than that. But you gotta be good to be lucky, so if fans thought the Leafs drove their ball off the tee clean into the woods, it looks like it hit a tree and kicked back into the middle of the fairway.

There’s suddenly more looking forward than looking back as fans start to pick through what this all means.

Does this influence the pending coaching decision?

Chayka and Sundin joined us on Real Kyper and Bourne Monday, and talked about their plans to meet with coach Craig Berube, then evaluate the past couple years, and make a decision on the head coach based on all that information. Kyper has speculated they’ll give Berube another chance, but I do wonder if this changes that.

That “another chance” thing seemed rooted in the idea that they didn’t know if they were going to be “re-tooling” or conducting a more thorough “rebuild.” Kyper’s contention was why hire a guy like Bruce Cassidy if you’re a non-playoff team that’s going to be selling players to acquire younger, more long-term assets?

But, as it’s become clear the path forward is now to “win” it may make less sense to wait until they’re a few games under .500 in November to then try to dig out of a hole. They’ve got to come out of the gates stronger than they did this past year, and it’s not clear that this coach has the buy-in needed to make that happen.

Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. But if Chayka and Sundin think they need to chart a new coaching direction to have success, they may now be less likely to wait and see how it plays out in September.

This starts the core succession plan while the current stars are still stars

There are countless examples of NHL teams that have had success with an older core that’s supported by an influx of young talent. The Leafs suddenly have Cowan, Knies, and what could be McKenna all 23 years old and under.

If things do go poorly, they’re at least not in a position where it looks like they’ll have to be terrible for years to get back in the mix. The next wave is suddenly more clear, the future suddenly more bright.

For a few years now a major problem for the Leafs has been that they had “no assets.” They couldn’t even participate in conversations about acquiring talented players who wanted out of their organizations, and it was tough to see other ways for them to improve.

Well, the cupboards didn’t go from bare to stocked overnight with one player, but as they turn the page on a lost season, there’s suddenly a lot more to work with — draft picks, tons of salary cap space, and obviously the first overall pick.

New manager Chayka and Senior Advisor Sundin have a lot to get up to speed on, a lot of changes to make, and a roster to re-shape. But with the good news starting in May, it looks more “very hard” than “impossible.”

Hockey’s a game infused with luck and chances, and the Leafs finally got one hell of a good bounce.