The past two times the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the result was a four-game sweep. Something tells us to prepare for a more protracted series this time out as these longtime rivals finally meet again in the post-season.
The Canadiens used three overtime victories to complete a second-round sweep of the Sabres en route to their 1993 Cup triumph, while Buffalo returned the Round 2 favour five years later in 1998, at the height of Dominik Hasek’s reign.
Now, nearly 30 years on, the old Adams Division foes clash again in the second round at a moment when both franchises are on the rise.
In fact, one of them is about to be a conference finalist.
Chances are we won’t know which one for a couple weeks, though, as Buffalo and Montreal seem primed for a long series. And despite the aforementioned sweeps, these teams have an extremely tight playoff history over the course of seven matchups. In fact, if Buffalo claims Game 1, the squads will have 18 playoff wins apiece against each other all-time.
This matchup certainly signifies a changing of the Atlantic Division guard, with Buffalo — in the second season for the first time since 2011 — having dispatched the Boston Bruins in the first round, while Montreal squeaked by another Atlantic legacy squad, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in seven games.
If, six months ago, you had told fans of each team their club would make Round 2 of the playoffs, they’d be over the moon. Heck, if you gave players and management truth serum at that point, even they might have done a little jig.
Things change fast in the NHL, though, and expectations have supplanted inexperience in both Buffalo and Montreal. They may be new kids on the block, but the road to a real playoff run is right in front of them.
The challenge now for each is figuring out a way past the other.
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Sabres: 2-2-0
Canadiens: 2-2-0
Regular-season advanced stats
(5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick)
Key Stat: Buffalo’s struggling power play, Montreal’s missing top line
How bad has Buffalo’s power play been? Well, the Sabres went 1-for-46 in April on the man advantage, the lone strike coming in a 2-1, overtime loss to the Bruins in Game 5.
Buffalo was basically a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of PP success before the blackout and even getting back to that status would do wonders for the club. The talent is obviously there and perhaps if the Swords can scare up a goal or two with the man advantage early in the series, it can become more of a weapon for them.
Meanwhile, Montreal is desperate for more production from its top line at five-on-five. The only goal the Canadiens got from their No. 1 trio in that situation versus Tampa came in Game 7, when Nick Suzuki deflected a point shot that subsequently kicked off Bolts defender J.J. Moser and past goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
That was the only goal from Suzuki in the first round. All three of Juraj Slafkovsky’s tallies versus Tampa were power-play markers in Game 1, while Cole Caufield’s lone strike was a PPG in Game 4.
Suzuki between Slafkovsky and Caufield was one of the best lines in hockey during the season, recording a league-high 70.2 goals percentage (via Moneypuck) among trios that spent at least 400 minutes together.
Assuming the three spend significant time together in Round 2 — coach Martin St. Louis really mixed his lines up in the final three games versus the Bolts — the top line will have to generate more scoring than it did in Round 1.
The Sabres defence corps is recognized as one of the best in the league and, collectively, the crew lived up to that billing against Boston. Mattias Samuelsson scored a pair of goals, including a monster go-ahead marker late in Game 1. Bowen Byram found the net three times in Round 1 and his partner, Owen Power, notched four assists.
As for the most talented of them all, Rasmus Dahlin really came alive in the final two games versus Boston, netting Buffalo’s only goal of Game 5 and doing all the work to set up Alex Tuch for the first strike in the Game 6 clincher.
Byram is the smallest blueliner of the group at six-foot-one and by the time you get to the third pair, you’ve got six-foot-seven Logan Stanley staring you down. The entire group is large, aggressive and features some big-time talent.
The back end drives Buffalo’s attack and, if that continues to be the case against Montreal, the Sabres will be in good stead.
The Canadiens had a big blueline development of their own in Game 7 that kind of got lost in the craziness of the triumph. Noah Dobson, who injured his hand on the final Saturday of the regular season and missed the first six games of the playoffs, returned to play a steady 18:37 versus the Bolts on Sunday night.
Even if Dobson is only operating at 85 per cent, his presence has a huge trickle-down impact on the Habs defence corps. As a righty, he brings some balance to the crew and allows St. Louis to rely on all three pairs instead of counting so heavily on the top four of Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle and Alex Carrier.
Speaking of depth, the Canadiens got surprisingly productive series from forwards like Kirby Dach (two goals), Alexandre Texier (two goals) Brendan Gallagher (one goal in three limited-ice appearances) and Zach Bolduc (four points in seven contests). If Montreal can get its top unit firing and still count on some goals from the middle/bottom-six crew, the Canadiens will be cooking with gas.
Of course, it goes without saying more stellar goaltending from Jakub Dobes — the guy who had a .961 save percentage in the final three games against Tampa — is a must.
Series schedule
(all times ET)
Game 1: Montreal at Buffalo, Wed. May 6 at 7 p.m.
Game 2: Montreal at Buffalo, Fri. May 8 at 7 p.m.
Game 3: Buffalo at Montreal, Sun. May 10 at 7 p.m.
Game 4: Buffalo at Montreal, Tue. May 12 at TBD
*Game 5: Montreal at Buffalo, Thurs. May 14 at TBD
*Game 6: Buffalo at Montreal, Sat. May 16 at TBD
*Game 7: Montreal at Buffalo, Mon. May 18 at TBD